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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.