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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."